There doesn’t seem to be a dull moment in BC provincial politics these days.
With less than six months to go until the 2024 Fall election, talks continue around a possible merger between the Conservatives and BC United.
While Conservative Leader John Rustad was told no of such a possibility by opposition head Kevin Falcon – Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West is being viewed as the best fit to lead such a coalition.
However, UNBC Senior Political Science Lecturer Jason Morris told Vista Radio with time not on their side, such a merger might have to wait until after the big vote.
“I’d say the two parties are really far apart on things like social issues and there is not much time for them to gang up with an election in six months and that would include amending party constitutions, setting policy proposals, and thinking of interested mayors.”
“You have to select a new leader. By the time they get all that done, they might miss the election.”
He added if such a move does occur, it wouldn’t be the first time the political landscape in BC was tilted on its head.
“BC has had some history with parties combining to try and win elections. We once had a premier in the 1940s’ called John Hart and there is a highway around here named after him, in which the Liberals and Conservatives ran a joint slate of candidates and won.”
A recent poll by Pallas BC suggests the Conservatives (38%) have a slim one-point lead over the NDP (37%), despite having just two seats in the legislature.
BC United is a distant third with 13% support.
Morris added polls aren’t always the best indicator of who is going to come out on top. He believes there are still some crucial tests the Conservatives have to pass in order for them to officially arrive.
“For the BC Conservatives, a challenge for them is that smaller parties can have trouble meeting how they are doing in the polls because of how the electoral system works. That means a smaller or new party can have a fair bit of votes everywhere but not enough concentrated in enough ridings to win seats.”
“As well, we have not had a test of support for the BC Conservatives and there won’t be one as I am speaking of a by-election, in which where we would see how they would do. I’d add to that while the BC Conservatives are seeing the sharp end of the rise in funding, they are nowhere near the NDP or BC United are pulling in.”
When asked what continues to plague the BC United, who are at risk of dropping to third-party status. Morris says the decline is mainly due to Rustad and the Tories taking the political scene by storm in recent months.
“It’s possible the BC United’s troubles are accelerated with the presence of the BC Conservatives. We also have a unique dynamic that is going on in BC politics today where we have essentially two low-level campaigns going on – the federal and provincial – we are finding in BC at least by polls again that the federal conservatives, the same name as the BC Conservatives are very popular in the province.”
For the last two decades, the former Liberal party and the NDP have taken turns assuming power in Victoria.
From 2001-2017, the Liberals under the leadership of Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark wrote the ship in the legislature.
However, momentum swung in the summer of 2017 as the Liberals were replaced following a confidence and supply agreement struck between then NDP leader and eventual two-term premier John Horgan and former BC Greens head Andrew Weaver.
In 2020, Horgan and the NDP formed a majority government soundly defeating the BC Liberals who were led by Andrew Wilkinson.
Two years later, citing health issues, Horgan stepped down as premier and was succeeded by Eby.
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