The meteoric rise of the Conservative Party of BC has made this fall’s provincial election a lot more interesting.
A new poll by Research Co suggests the provincial version of the Tories is solidly in second place at 32% support while the once-mighty BC United party continues its fall from grace registering a historic low of just 12%.
UNBC Senior Political Science Lecturer, Jason Morris told Vista Radio while the former Liberals do have much deeper pockets than the Conservatives that matters little right now.
“They have a much superior fundraising ability according to the Conservatives. Probably within the BC United board rooms and policy sessions, they are shaking their heads and wondering that they are doing everything right but it is still not working.”
“It must be hard for leader Kevin Falcon to get up in the morning – they do have some strength within its team and its fundraising ability but it’s almost like we are in a position now where the race is for second place and a new opposition with this remarkable rise of the BC Conservatives.”
“The decline of the BC United party is only being accelerated because of the BC Conservatives that even without the Conservatives they would still be on the downslope,” added Morris.
Morris added the sudden shift in momentum for the Conservatives may be the biggest popularity jump of a minority party in BC and Canadian history.
“BC does have a long history of parties seemingly coming from out of nowhere. Even the BC Liberals in the late 1960s’ and early 1970s’ were a fringe party and before that, we had the Social Credit Party in the 1950’s that ruled the province for a whole generation.”
“In this respect, the Conservatives are tapping into a long-term trend where BC voters try something new.”
He believes this year’s vote looks like a legacy election for Premier David Eby and the NDP.
“Six months ago it felt clear to everybody that the BC NDP was headed to a third straight election win and that is something they have never done. I would say that Premier David Eby needs the win because he replaced former Premier John Horgan so as premier, Mr. Eby has not faced the voters.”
The provincial NDP holds leads over the BC Conservatives in Metro Vancouver (40% to 30%) and Vancouver Island (49% to 29%). But, the races are closer in the Fraser Valley (NDP 40%, Conservatives 39%), Southern BC (NDP 39%, Conservatives 37%) and Northern BC (Conservatives 40%, NDP 38%).
Across the province, the BC Conservatives are ahead among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (39% to 34%). The BC New Democrats lead among decided voters aged 35-to-54 (38% to 33%) as well as those aged 55 and over (50% to 26%).
“When we have predicted outcomes so close, it comes down to the campaign. We could have a party leader who runs a poor election campaign and that could wreck it all – even a single misstep like a regrettable comment from a novice candidate can take things off the rails for a party.”
“To me, it’s amazing to think the future of the province could come down to a few weeks of door-knocking a lawn sign placements,” said Morris.
In addition, the approval rating for Eby stands at 54% this month (+3) while the numbers are considerably lower for Rustad (37%, +2), BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (35%, -2) and, United party head Kevin Falcon (31%, -5).
A link to the poll can be found here.
Something going on in the Bulkley Valley Lakes District you think people should know about?
Send us a news tip by emailing [email protected].